Interview with Jeff Lugowe

 

If i had to choose a single moment after which things changed permanently, it would be the way Trump was received as a candidate in 2015, when he announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for the presidency. This was the moment when it became obvious that Republicans‘ authoritarian tendencies, anti-democratic leanings and power-at-all-costs approach to politics would spell the downfall of a functioning two-party system. Through their policy of appeasement, licking the boot and even embracing Trump’s brand of politics, Republicans revealed that they are not a political party but a cult. Our political system has not recovered from this.

 

 

Academic research and public opinion surveys have long demonstrated that Republican voters are more authoritarian-leaning, more hierarchical-minded, less likely to question authority, and less concerned with diversity, including diversity of opinion. Americans who tend to vote Democratic are significantly more likely to emphasize and respect differences in society and in politics, for better and for worse. This structural difference between voters of the two parties (and their elected representatives) explains part of the dramatic changes we have seen in US politics in recent years.

 

A second explanation is related to a combination of other factors, including staggering income inequality that exceeds that of any other wealthy country, persistently high levels of violent crime (which is related to the income inequality, in my view), the disappearance of manufacturing jobs, and immigration that has changed the demographic picture of the country and challenged many white Americans views of their place in their own country.

 

The third explanation is naturally related to the first two. American society and, as a result, US politics have become deeply polarized. Where some white Americans view immigrants as a direct threat to their jobs and their identity, other white Americans have embraced growing multiculturalism and reject their countrymen’s nativist and racist views. This is but one example of an issue where Americans are divided into seemingly irreconcilable camps. People not only disagree, they reject each other’s definition of the problems facing their lives and their society.

 

 

The current occupant of the White House ostensibly practices a foreign policy he characterizes as America First. In reality, this is a foreign policy based on his own personal whims, his pride and susceptibility to flattery and exploitation, and his admiration for authoritarians, including some of the world’s most vicious, lawless dictators. His administration is staffed both by people who hold traditional Republican views on the US‘ place in the world (emphasis on spreading democracy, willing to use force if it aligns with American interests and principles) and those who seek to isolate the US from its allies and international institutions, while courting undemocratic regimes that have traditionally been US adversaries. The latter group currently seems to be winning out.

 

The effects of this rather patchwork, impulsive foreign policy are extremely far-reaching, most evidently for other countries around the world, but also for the US itself. The US risks losing much of its soft power if it pursues this America First vision to its logical conclusion. By mocking, bullying and undermining its traditional allies, the US may risk increasing international isolation and face reprisals that could seriously challenge its position as a global hegemon. The US, in my view, is accelerating its own decline. The rise of China and other actors including, potentially, an expanded and more confident Europe, may have been inevitable, but the US seems intent on bringing about a new world order that will make Americans and others around the world less safe and less prosperous.

 

 

Populist rhetoric has indeed moved to the mainstream of US politics, particularly on the Republican side but also, increasingly, among Democrats. Populism is a terribly short-term response to serious, structural issues that demand carefully considered responses designed for the long term. Populist rhetoric also risks sounding extremely hollow if, as in the case of the current administration, it is not followed up by actual policies that address people’s often legitimate grievances.

 

The most pressing issue facing US politics going forward is the growing acceptance of violence among elected Republicans and their voters. Survey data and empirical data from the past few years reveal that increasing numbers of Americans, in particular Trump supporters but also growing numbers of Trump opponents, consider the use of violence to achieve political aims to be legitimate in certain cases. Murders of and attacks on political figures in the US barely registers as a shock anymore. Americans are desensitized to violence and fail to understand how embedded violence is in American culture and society. The roots of American violence are deep, dating back to the colonization of what today is the United States. The risk of civil war, whether a low-scale, persistent version or a full-scale war, is higher today than it has been since the end of the Civil War in 1865. Stepping back from the precipice requires bipartisan commitment to lowering the temperature of US politics. Few Republicans, in particular, seem interested in approaching this problem seriously and placing country before party.

 

 

I am cautiously optimistic that Republicans have already reached the peak of their power and influence during this particular era of US politics. Trump’s project is fundamentally contradictory (anti-elite but highly corrupt), devoid of policies that improve people’s lives (apart from those of our growing oligarchic class), and ideologically ill-defined. I expect Democrats to regain a significant majority in the House of Representatives following the midterm elections in November 2026, notwithstanding GOP attempts to gerrymander their way to a stolen victory (which have mainly backfired). Control of the Senate is more up in the air, as only 1/3 of the 100 seats in the chamber are up for election every two years, but the national mood as captured by survey data coupled with Democrats‘ decisive victories in the major races this past November and their overperformance in recent special elections around the country suggest that Democrats are on their way to a landslide.

 

Having said that, I never trust the Democrats not to trip over their own two feet and spoil an electoral opportunity. I hope, but am by no means confident, that the party has learned from its strategic mistakes and lack of backbone that have characterized the Trump years. Time will tell, but I think Republicans face a more difficult immediate future. Trump is unlikely to become more popular as he

approaches lame-duck status during the end of his term. The current VP is not broadly popular and lacks basic political skills. Republicans have accomplished little besides tax cuts for the wealthiest and dismantling Obamacare, undermined democracy, broken the law and lost their ability to stand up for any principles they held. They have sold their souls in exchange for power. There will be consequences for the choices Republicans have made since Trump took over their party.

 

Thank you for your time and the insightful answers you provided.